Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 13.590342 15.526646 17.624264 20.063350 22.819415 25.835016 29.382579
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 10.823899 13.440025 16.498845 20.330948 24.994806 30.477805 37.403719
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 9.210780 12.065159 15.569382 20.172409 26.043058 33.262244 42.794208
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 7.873477 10.816998 14.590759 19.759925 26.629914 35.417207 47.476354
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 7.010758 10.036625 14.063532 19.781263 27.652383 38.062822 52.824341
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.410151 9.525400 13.813433 20.102035 29.036324 41.211321 58.984671
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 5.855135 9.006585 13.481822 20.243517 30.132138 43.981170 64.742348
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.292994 8.413029 12.976251 20.067394 30.723868 46.035481 69.565775
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.904262 8.036249 12.744004 20.252449 31.822770 48.843607 75.602560
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.675314 7.880809 12.822737 20.896314 33.628466 52.768144 83.492395
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 4.277413 7.416548 12.379949 20.684553 34.084610 54.663848 88.385709
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 3.747416 6.686171 11.452959 19.623054 33.113513 54.281081 89.688966
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 3.567731 6.536760 11.467891 20.109791 34.685517 58.011417 97.773584
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 3.391887 6.378310 11.454382 20.545526 36.199164 61.734382 106.066748
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 3.122048 6.026777 11.080200 20.330125 36.590111 63.626578 111.429634
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.850232 5.646438 10.623999 19.932546 36.631365 64.922551 115.844434
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.667356 5.414766 10.412238 19.948099 37.383314 67.443829 122.458407
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.544229 5.285722 10.375355 20.273435 38.698199 70.991941 131.023878
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.406150 5.114898 10.246495 20.415388 39.681712 74.001781 138.786904
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.239283 4.871583 9.960905 20.238071 40.057444 75.939199 144.718035
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.129734 4.735279 9.870188 20.424540 41.118733 79.155628 153.115103
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 2.079780 4.718744 10.012653 21.073600 43.095966 84.143264 165.014136
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.940237 4.499357 9.732240 20.860132 43.383303 85.997001 171.145527